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- Statistics and Probability Course: Interrogate Data and Communicate Findings (3 days)
Statistics and Probability Course: Interrogate Data and Communicate Findings (3 days)
Read data critically, judge probabilities sensibly and present findings that decision-makers can trust.
Projects and businesses run on numbers: survey results, defect rates, risk ratings, forecasts and the averages quoted in every report. Many staff take these figures at face value, or are misled by a small sample, an outlier or a chart drawn to make a point. This three-day statistics and probability course builds the practical numeracy to question data properly and to communicate findings honestly. It is statistical training for people who work with data but are not statisticians.
Delegates learn to collect, organise and present data; to read a distribution for its shape, its clusters and gaps and any outliers; to judge whether a sample is big enough and representative enough to support a conclusion; and to use theoretical and experimental probability to model situations and make predictions. The course then applies these ideas to project work – estimating durations, rating risks and testing claims – and to everyday arguments about chance, such as 'hot' lottery numbers or a run of good months.
The approach is practical: worked examples, calculators or spreadsheets, and short presentations of findings. No advanced mathematics is needed beyond comfortable everyday numeracy, so it can serve as a first stats course.
Why this course
For your organisation
- Decisions based on properly interpreted data
- Reports and presentations that do not overstate the evidence
- Better estimates and risk ratings on projects
- Staff who question misleading figures before they are acted on
For your delegates
- Confidence reading tables, charts and summary statistics
- A practical grasp of probability for risk and forecasting
- Checklists for judging samples, surveys and claims
- Practice presenting findings clearly to a non-technical audience
What delegates will be able to do
- Choose suitable methods to collect, organise and present data
- Calculate and interpret the mean, median, mode, range and spread of a data set
- Describe the shape of a distribution and judge the effect of outliers
- Judge whether a sample is large and representative enough to support a conclusion
- Calculate probabilities for independent, mutually exclusive and complementary events
- Use experimental and theoretical probability to model a situation and make predictions
- Apply probability to project estimates and risk ratings
- Spot misleading statistics, charts and arguments about chance
- Present findings clearly and honestly in a short report or presentation
Who should attend
Project team members, project administrators and coordinators, supervisors, business owners and anyone who works with data, surveys or risk ratings and wants to interpret them with confidence. Delegates should be comfortable with everyday numeracy – percentages, fractions and reading simple tables. A Grade 12 maths or maths literacy background helps but is not required.
Course outline
Day 1 – Collecting, organising and presenting data
Why statistics matter in projects and business
- Data, information and evidence
- Where projects use statistics: estimates, quality, surveys and risk
- How numbers mislead: the common traps
Collecting data
- Types of data: categorical and numerical, discrete and continuous
- Surveys, questionnaires, observation and records
- Designing questions that do not bias the answers
- Collecting personal information responsibly under POPIA
Organising and summarising data
- Frequency tables and grouped data
- Mean, median and mode: which average to use when
- Range, quartiles and standard deviation in plain terms
Presenting data
- Bar charts, histograms, pie charts, line graphs and box plots
- Choosing the right chart for the message
- Spotting misleading charts: cut-off axes, stretched scales and cherry-picked periods
- Exercise: summarising and charting a project data set
Day 2 – Distributions, samples and probability
Reading distributions
- Symmetrical and skewed distributions
- Clusters, gaps and outliers, and how they change the story
- The normal distribution in practice
Samples and populations
- Why we sample and what a sample can and cannot tell us
- Sample size and representativeness
- Sampling bias: convenience samples, self-selection and non-response
- Estimating population figures from a sample, and the margin of error
Probability basics
- Probability as a number between 0 and 1
- Theoretical versus experimental probability
- Independent, mutually exclusive and complementary events
- Tree diagrams and two-way tables
Randomness and the law of large numbers
- Random behaviour and why short runs mislead
- The gambler's fallacy and 'hot' lottery numbers
- Simulations and experiments in class
Day 3 – Using statistics and probability to decide and communicate
Probability in project work
- Rating risk likelihood and impact
- Expected value for comparing options
- Three-point estimates for durations and costs
Interrogating claims
- Judging probability values quoted in reports and the media
- Correlation versus causation
- Questions to ask of any statistic
Modelling and prediction
- Building a simple probability model of a work situation
- Making predictions and checking them against results
- Recognising the limits of a model
Communicating findings
- Structuring a findings report for decision-makers
- Explaining uncertainty in plain language
- Group exercise: investigate a data set and present the findings
- Personal action plan and evaluation
How it is delivered
Three days, 08:30-16:00. In person at your offices anywhere in South Africa, at a BOTI venue, or live online. One delegate or a group of up to 20. Workbook, practice data sets and worked examples included; delegates need a calculator, and laptops with spreadsheet software can be supplied on request for the charting exercises. We deliver it at your offices in Johannesburg, Pretoria, Durban, Cape Town and anywhere else in South Africa, at a BOTI venue in Johannesburg, or live online for teams in different places.
What our clients say
★★★★★ 4.8 on Google from 790+ reviews · word-for-word quotes from signed letters of reference, from clients on this and/or related BOTI courses
“All training sessions were well-coordinated, professionally delivered, and aligned with our scheduling requirements. We were particularly impressed by the high standard of facilitation and the depth of expertise demonstrated throughout the programmes.”
“All training programmes were delivered in a highly professional manner, with effective coordination and strict adherence to our scheduling requirements. The facilitators demonstrated a commendable level of expertise, and the quality of delivery consistently met our expectations.”
Frequently asked questions
Can you run this course at our offices?
Yes. Most groups are trained at the client's premises anywhere in South Africa. We can also host it at a BOTI venue or deliver it live online.
How many people can attend?
From one delegate to groups of about 20. The price per delegate drops as the group grows – see the price table, or ask us for a quote.
Is it accredited?
No – it is a non-accredited short course and delegates receive a BOTI certificate of attendance.
How much maths do delegates need?
Everyday numeracy is enough: percentages, fractions and reading a simple table. Each method is built up step by step with worked examples.
Can the examples come from our own work?
Yes. Send us anonymised data or reports beforehand and the facilitator builds them into the exercises.
How is this different from the Monitoring and Evaluation Course?
The M&E course covers indicators, frameworks and evaluation with basic analysis. This course goes deeper into the statistics and probability behind the numbers.
Related courses
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